Whispers on Luxon’s replacement

This has come quite early

On 5 March, Duncan Garner reported that the National Party started the process to remove Christopher Luxon from the Prime Ministerial position. Although in January 2024 I predicted that in the next election, it would not be Christopher Luxon who leads the National Party, it surprised me that the strong whispers about his replacement came this early.

In his podcast, Duncan Garner described that former Prime Minister Sir John Key, former ministers Steven Joyce and Murray McCully started discussing the transition of power inside the National Party, and allegedly, Paula Bennett also joined them. Their duty is not easy, however, they are certain that if Luxon leads the party to the next election, it would be a one-term National Party Government.

The reasons are simple, Luxon’s unpopularity, the fact that he cannot resonate with voters, and the sluggish economy are all pointing towards the government losing the trust of voters. As Garner reported, the trigger to start Luxon’s replacement was the “trainwreck” Mike Hosking interview where Hosking held Luxon accountable for his rhetoric.

In this blog, I composed a piece about a psychological condition, escapism, that is a common feature of Luxon’s and Ardern’s. In the post on 6 January 2024, I wrote the following about Luxon’s future:

Luxon’s fate is likely to arrive in the form of an internal coup.

Although Peters and Seymour will likely notice that Luxon is often unaware of hard facts, they might not raise their issues publicly because they are interested in keeping the coalition together. It is their ticket to hold power and influence. However, inside the National Party, there might be people who will challenge his leadership after realising that Luxon was unaware of facts, and he proves to be more just promises rather than delivery. This moment might come during the first term because there are signs already that some of the National Party’s MPs do not believe Luxon’s inner circle has the necessary talent to lead the country in a successful direction. The tensions might become strong enough for a coup if there are hard debates among cabinet members, specifically with ACT and New Zealand First ministers. The wiser MPs know that for Peters, the stability of a government is crucial, therefore, they would not want to risk a coup. However, when we are close enough to the next election, a coup is more likely. The government might stay afloat because of the short period before the election, and the public would expect an election anyway when the voters are about to create a new deal of political power. For this reason, the most realistic scenario with the current economic outlook is that Luxon will not lead the National Party into the next election campaign.

If what Duncan Garner reported is true, there are many questions. First of all, who can lead the National Party into the next election? Unlike in 2021 when Judith Collins was leading the party, now there is no obvious successor among the National MPs. In 2021, it was pretty obvious that Christopher Luxon would get the chance to lead the party after the clash between Simon Bridges and Judith Collins. When Luxon entered parliament after the 2020 election, the rumours were strong about his likely future leadership and Prime Ministerial aspirations. And, as a first-time MP, he got the role of spokesperson for local government too.

Escapism causes people to become deceptive because they believe the fairy tales, they are telling themselves. After a certain time, people in their close circles realise this and become disappointed. Now, the most disappointed people with Luxon are the ones who helped him build up his profile to become Prime Minister. And these people certainly include Sir John Key. In their disappointment, they have to realize that they gave Luxon quite a large independence to build up his team. And, this team does not have a strong candidate to replace Luxon.

It is unlikely, they would try to promote Judith Collins to become Prime Minister and party leader. That would render the 2026 election to be a farce because there is a good chance the Labour Party will still have Hipkins as leader and, in that case, two losers would compete. Nicola Willis might be a good candidate – however, she is too closely linked to Luxon. Still, she might show advantages: because she is deputy leader now, her possible appointment to be leader of the party would show continuity and for conservative voters, it is crucial. Besides, she has a certain charisma and passion that might be attractive to voters. The possible risk associated with her is that she became infamous for the budget cuts that proved to be counterproductive and so far did not result in generating economic growth.

In my opinion, Erica Stanford could be the best choice for the National Party. Her weakness is her greatest strength: she is a hardworking MP and for this reason, she prefers doing things rather than managing a large organisation, such as the National Party. Nevertheless, she has momentum and could be attractive to young people too. As Winston Peters served as a mentor for Jacinda Ardern while they were in a coalition between 2017 and 2020, Peters would likely help Stanford as well to develop her leadership skills.

The largest loser in the situation is Christopher Luxon. As far as I understand psychology, it is easy to say that his removal will shake his core beliefs, both about himself and the world. In the long run, such a shock helps the individual if the necessary reflections and admissions of mistakes follow. The process is slow, however, and emotionally challenging, and rather painful. Hopefully, Luxon will find the necessary support to go through this transition.